I should add that if China is "paying Russia to do this" then the Chinese have paid the Russians to cut their own throats. The Russians above all fear the absorption of their former Eastern provinces into the Chinese sphere of influence, a project which is going full speed ahead through commercial deals and Han migration. There are places with only a few million ethnic Russians into which Han Chinese are pouring in like water rushing into the hold of the Titanic. And the day after a Chinese arrives he's got a store, a business or some trading going. And on it goes.
From the strategic point of view the Russian action is pure lunacy. They are uncompetitive with the Chinese, who will steamroller them. They face restive Muslim populations. And now they want to play macho man with Uncle Sam. Oh, they have the EuroLeft and their leftist acolytes. But on the Chinese will come. On and on. Putin should think about that when he finds the money to pay for his Black Sea freight insurance policies.
Putin has committed the classic two-front blunder. In dealing with two fronts you need a quick knockout on one side so you can turn your attention to the next. If Putin had planned on forcing a Georgian surrender in a week, and installing a tame government in Tbilisi, thereby handing the West a fait accompli it has all gone terribly wrong. Georgia, simply by surviving, is drawing him in. More men, more equipment. More risks.
Every mile the Russians go forward increases the chances of incalculable consequences, now that Americans are coming in to Georgia. And now that he has made a monkey of Sarkozy, the French, though they might not be able to do much, can help by not hindering. That too we may now owe to Putin.
This can still be unwound if Putin pulls back to Ossetia and moves his major units back to Russia. It's still not hopeless. But right now Georgia is an abyss into which Moscow can fall. There's no bottom to it. Putin has just dropped a stone into the darkness of what he assumed was a shallow cavern and is waiting to hear it's fall. He's still waiting.
There is another aspect to this. The Pew Polls show McCain level with Obama and significantly, "the base is coming home for McCain. He's getting the Republicans, white evangelical Protestants, and the white working class voters are coming onboard." Putin may have cut the ground from under Barack "I will abolish all future Combat Systems" Obama. Just imagine how absolutely stupid Obama's sophomoric speeches in front of rockstar crowds will start to sound with every passing day.
And to return to China: China will soon be virtually dependent on overseas energy to keep going, so it can keep its economy ramped up to sell to its biggest clients: the USA, Europe, Japan and South Korea. What does Russia buy from China? And China is going to give Russia the handle on the spigot its energy? Give Putin the ability to turn the lights out in Beijing? China is Russia's rival from Central Asia; it is other big player in the Great Game.
Lastly, Russia slapped China across the face by timing this with the Beijing Olympics. That may not seem like much, but I think it is one more suggestion that Putin has a cheap KGB mind. Clever in his own way but strategically stupid.
BBC report of the War
You know... it's not much of a ceasefire when Russian planes are still bombing Gori, a town not in South Ossetia. Oh Vlad, you scamp.
Russia trying to hand Gori back over to Georgia?
A bit more history as to why the Ossetians and Abkhazians are prefeclty happy to side with Moscow.
Well... this is getting frustrating for Putin. Georgia sitll existing is quite troublesome for him. As long as Georgia isn't a puppet state, Putin has to sink more men et al into the area
And it's driving Urkaine firmly into NATO's arms. Poland has a missile and defense deal that just got in today.
Does Russia like having a deep water BlackSea base? Ukraine may hand the base over to the USN.
Mr. HopeChange is enough of a fool to want to cancel all US anti-missile tech, all future combat stuff (which while wasteful there is some good stuff), and get rid of the US nukes
Man... did he just Hope Putin would play along?
Odd how Bush is , rightly so, mocked for "seeing Putin's soul", but Obama is expected to heal our enemies by just talking with them.. What would we get under President Obama: "The Prime Minister Putin that invaded Poland is not the man I knew." ?
It doesn't help that Obama's trapped policy-wise. He can either sound like a far-left Liberal or McCain lite. To be blunt. We HAVE a McCain already running.
Via Glen Reynolds.
UPDATE: A reader emails: "For the record, Russia won the recent battle against Georgia but lost the war. The war is Russia against all of her neighbors. By continuously ticking off all of her neighbors, Russia is causing them to fight back any way they can. Eventually Russia will die the death of a thousand cuts. Russia's thug economy won't be strong enough to handle this war long-term, especially when energy prices drop."
All the more reason to open up drilling.
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