Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Models versus Reality

One of my main issues with Global Warming models is the faith people will put into computer models.

The big problem with climate science is the same as geology. It's not repeatable and thus harder to study correlations, and linking causes and effects.

I've worked with computer models and the phrase "Garbage In Garbage Out" is very true. Your inputs determine how accurate your outputs can be.

Another factor is that your assumptions and governing equations. The model will only tell you what you model it to do.

So if critical feedback mechanisms, like the effects of increased water vapor are not computed properly...

This is why I was always skeptical of people touting Climate Models. Climatology is much more difficult to model than a lot of engineering problems. Especially since simulation results on engineering problems like fluid dynamics, structural, and heat analysis can be compared to experimental tests.

Climate studies do not lend such an elegant verification method.

More information is given here.

From Ace

And rom Ed (linked by Ace)

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